Divination by Google
Soon in Ukraine will be held the next presidential election. Active political campaigning in the media, huge billboards with political slogans. Even before the official election race, different companies in Ukraine and abroad have conducted surveys and research to identify the most likely winner in the presidential elections of Ukraine 2010. Do you know what is good Internet? The fact that, even without a huge staff, Institute of sociology, anyone can determine for themselves which of the candidates is popular among the population. And this will help us google stats .
As you know, with the help of search engines people are searching for interesting information in the Internet. Google is one of the most popular search services in Ukraine, so his stats allows with sufficient accuracy to judge the popularity of certain search queries in the Ukraine.
For example, chart the popularity of search query "elections" in Ukraine since 2004 to the present.
The numbers on this and subsequent charts show the share of searches for a given query in the total number of searches made on Google over time. These numbers do not represent the absolute search volume, because the data are normalized and displayed on a scale from 0 to 100.
Each point on the graph correlated with the maximum value, i.e. 100. For example, assume that the interest in the search query of skiing has increased dramatically in November. The system assigns this peak value of 100. Now suppose that in December, there was a significant decline in interest and the next peak was about two times less than in November. This peak is assigned a value of 50, etc. in the absence of enough data, 0 is displayed. The numbers specified next to your search queries on the graph represent total values.
As can be seen from the above chart, the maximum number of search queries "elections" had on November 2004. It was during late autumn – early winter 2004 the events took place, known in history as "orange revolution". The next peak on the chart March 2006. indicates the high interest of Internet users from Ukraine for the next parliamentary elections. Peaks attributable to October 2007 and may 2008 associated with the early parliamentary elections in Ukraine. Thus, this chart very clearly illustrates the political situation in the country and what interest it arouses in the population. As you can see, compared to 2004 the popularity of the query "elections" is currently very small.
Online ratings presidential candidates of Ukraine election 2010 is composed not a few. We again refer to the statistics of Google. Let's see the dynamics of popularity search queries related to the surnames of "main" presidential candidates, starting from 2004 to the present day.
Please note, the popularity of the queries shown on this graph more or less corresponds to the "balance of power" after the presidential elections of 2004. Based on this can we assume that there is a correlation between the popularity of the query with the name of the candidate and of his real popularity among the population?
Let's look at a graph of the dynamics of the popularity of these same requests over the past year, last 3 months and month.
As can be seen from these graphs, the number of search queries on Google related to the surname of the presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko higher than the number of requests associated with the names of the other candidates.
Now please refer to the official figures of sociological researches. Thus, according to the poll conducted by the Center for social and marketing research SOCIS from 20 September to 1 October, Yanukovych ready to vote 28,7 %, Yulia Tymoshenko — 19 %, A. Yatsenyuk — by 8.2 %, P. Symonenko at 3.6 %, Vladimir Litvin — 2,9 %, V. Yushchenko — 2,8 %, S. Tihipko, 2.6 percent.
A survey conducted FOM-Ukraine LLC in the period from 26 September to 4 October, showed Yanukovych ready to vote 26.8% of respondents, for Yulia Timoshenko — 15,6 %. Leader of "Front for change" Yatsenyuk support for 9.3 % of Ukrainians.
According to the pollR. held 2-12 October, the leader of the Party of regions is ready to vote, 30.2% of respondents, 18,5 % — for BYUT leader. While 8,9 % would support leader of "Front for change" Yatsenyuk, of 4.1 % — the leader of the left Bloc of P. Symonenko, 3,1 % — the current President Viktor Yushchenko, 2,7 % — for S. Tihipko, 2,4 % — to the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, V. Lytvyn.
According to a survey from the company TNS. held from 7 to 14 December 2009, Yanukovych ready to vote 26.3% of voters, for Yulia Tymoshenko 18.6% and for S. Tigipko — 5,6 %. This is followed by Yushchenko from 4.2 % rating, Yatsenyuk from 4.1 %, V. Lytvyn with 3.1% and Symonenko from 2.3 %.
17 Jan 2010 20:00 closed the doors of polling stations over the last citizens who in the day have expressed their will through a secret ballot based on universal, equal and direct electoral rights (under the Constitution). From this moment started meticulously counting of votes, which may take more than one day.
As reported on the official website of the CEC, according to 91.16% of the processed protocols, 22 279 455 voters in Ukraine participated in the voting. 1.63% of the ballots in Ukraine are declared invalid.
In the elections on 17 January in Ukraine was conducted by the national exit poll’2010, which is jointly organized by the Fund “Democratic initiatives”, Kyiv international Institute of sociology and the Ukrainian centre for economic and political studies. Alexander Razumkov.
According to the Chairman of the Fund "Democratic initiatives" Ilko Kucheriv, only interviewed 12 thousand 546 respondents at 240 polling stations. Every plot of average respondents 74 of the voter. Statistical sampling error does not exceed 1.3%.
Interesting picture data obtained by comparing the results of the vote of urban and rural population. How different are the figures for a particular candidate?
According to data published on the official website of the National exit poll-2010, urban and rural population of Ukraine voted in the following manner:
Data from the National exit poll-2010 by type of settlement (in %)
Do not support any one candidate
Number of incorrectly filled questionnaires
What of all this we can conclude? Having examined the data of the National exit-poll'2010 and graphs of the dynamics of the popularity of the relevant search queries, one can note that such candidates as Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Tigipko,occupy a leading position not only according to the CEC and exit polls, but also on the "Google-version". For example, according to the exit poll the residents of the villages gave a majority of their votes to Yulia Tymoshenko, in second place – Victor Yanukovych, but on the third with 9.4% of the votes Yushchenko, although the results of a survey of the urban population in the three of leaders looks as Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Tigipko. Why the numbers are so different, what do You think?
Google statistics shows that users often enter a search string, the queries associated with such popular key words as “Timoshenko” and “Yanukovich”. And what kind of information users search engine Google? We offer you to look at statistics on the most popular search queries associated with the terms “Timoshenko” and “Yanukovich” for the last 30 days in Ukraine:
Statistics and analysis like, that would have not only on Google but on other search engines, it is interesting for example in Ukrainian, a type of meth.WA
With a choice for ourselves but will do it at the polling station, directly make a mark in the ballot I hope my vote will help to choose a worthy President for Ukraine.
God grant that our country will become prosperous and democratic with the new President.
Good luck to us ALL, and I think the neighboring countries are interested in a normal, developed Ukraine.
Unfortunately for meta it is impossible to do (there is no such service), and there is no need.
Why? Answer: in December 2009, users made approximately 10 billion search queries. Part of which was served by the Google search engine was 67.3%, which is 6.7 billion and Far behind were the other players of the search market, in second place with a score of 14.4% is Yahoo is about 1.4 billion queries, and 9.9% said search engine Bing or 986 million queries and is in third place. The share of the other search engines are negligible.
Hopefully Yanukovych will pull the country out of the mess in which it is wait.
I think Google was pretty accurate, I personally did not expect that Tigipko will be the third, it seemed to me that the three of leaders closes Yatsenyuk, but Google shows that the three next preceding months, people were actively interested in Tigipko much more than Yatsenyuk.
As for the question posed at the end of the article, the difference between rural and urban areas in voting is quite predictable in my opinion. First, in the remote villages often show only a few “dominant” channels, and secondly, too different needs. For the villagers it seems to me more important than the political programme for the agricultural sector, and to us, urban is more important than, for example, the reduction of tariffs of public utilities. Who promised that the needs of the people, he and the horse.
Sedna second round of voting. On Friday in our city for the third time come “S with Ukraine in our hearts”, this time Potap and Nastya. It's minus 10, and the people on the square danced though henna. And the question is how many of them really going to vote for Lady j?
But in support of Yanukovych, there were no concerts in our city in this election. There was an impression that Tymoshenko herself took all the artists away))))
Chet no "Z Ukraine in serci" neither Google, Julia Vladimirovna did not help to win 🙂