Forecast us dollar to New year: what to expect from the currency in 2016
Economic problems affected many countries. The growth of the dollar and euro has had a negative impact on the well-being of ordinary citizens. The dollar is a currency in which Russians traditionally store their savings. The country literally froze in anticipation: "And what will happen next?". So, what is the forecast for the dollar for the New Year 2016.
New forecasts of the dollar in 2016 in Russia
What will happen next no one can say for sure. After the events of 2014, when the dollar, the euro began to rise, and the ruble to fall, many experts are in no hurry to make accurate forecasts, limiting their assumptions. Will there be a strengthening of the Russian currency in the world market in 2016, and what forecast is the dollar expected for the New Year?
What determines the dollar
At present, the ruble exchange rate depends on many nuances, in particular:
- the cost of oil
- economic sanctions against Russia
- payments on foreign currency debts.
The main reasons for the fall of the ruble:
- reducing the cost of oil
- economic sanctions against Russia.
The economy of the Russian Federation is largely subject to the price of oil. If its value falls, then the ruble falls. The higher it is, the lower the green paper.
Forecast us dollar to New year: what to expect in December
December is a month of a unique summing up of the results of the confrontation between America, the European Union on the one hand, and the politics and economy of the Russian Federation on the other. Some experts are sure that at the end of this year it will become clear that the pressure on Russia is unpromising. And for countries that support economic and political sanctions, they will be disastrous. Europe depends on Russia's energy carriers, and without them it can freeze. However, even the optimists do not believe in the possibility of strengthening the ruble above the level of 42 per dollar.
Many believe that the peak of the crisis is over, and the current rate is economically justified. So says the Central Bank, saying that in anticipation of the New 2016 economic situation will be better. Trend to continue in 2016.
The forecast of the dollar for the New Year from the Ministry of Economic Development is 60 rubles at an oil price of $ 50 per barrel, which is budgeted. This is evidenced by new data published on the site.
According to Andrei Belousov, an assistant to the head of the Russian Federation, the ruble's price in early 2016 will fluctuate between 65-70 per dollar.
As for the euro, American and European banks expect that by the New Year the green paper will approach the euro, and in 2016 they will equalize.
How much will it cost the ruble in 2016?
As a result of the decline of the American economy, analysts are actively predicting a fall in the dollar. The mass media assure that the economic downturn in the US is over. But the world community does not hurry to believe these statements.
Experts believe that in 2016 the dollar will fall sharply due to an increase in the external debt of the United States. The trade deficit that is observed today also contributes to economic vulnerability.
And what about Russia? What sways foreign debts, then the situation is somewhat better. However, isolation of the country and sanctions, unstable domestic industry, as well as the cost of oil give a disappointing result. Experts believe that the country's economic crisis will last at least two more years. At the same time, they insist that it is not worth waiting for a rise in oil prices for several years, and Russia's economy has many internal problems that pull it to the bottom.
Most experts predict that the dollar will grow, but they give different figures:
- Agency experts APAKAN believe that in the beginning of 2016 the dollar will be worth 90-100 rubles
- investment Bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the dollar will be equal to 58-60 rubles
- American experts claim that the price of the green paper will generate up to 75 rubles
- Russian experts are not so pessimistic and assume that this figure will rise to more than 61 of the ruble at the beginning of the year, and after will decline to 55 rubles
- employees of the Gaidar Institute, in 2016 the average value of the dollar with oil prices at $70 per barrel predicted in 51 rubles, and at a cost of $60 – 52.7 ruble.
Let's hope that the worst predictions won't come true, and the ruble will strengthen.
What is preparing the Russians
It is desirable for citizens of Russia to be attuned to the fact that nothing will change radically in the near future, and start preparations for the New Year. Especially since many already understand that it is unlikely that the dollar will cost about 30 rubles. At present, Russia is inclined to cooperate with China, therefore, perhaps in the near future, Russians will be interested not in the dollar's forecast for the New Year, but in the value of the yuan.
But the weather for the New Year holidays, as well as the ruble rate recently, is expected to be changeable. However, our compatriots are already accustomed to sudden changes in weather conditions during the New Year holidays. The main thing is to quickly orient yourself in changing clothes, and a festive mood can not be overshadowed by anything.